American Harvest
California released the harvest report for this year, which corresponds to their 2017/2018 harvesting year (California Walnut Objective Measurement Report Click Here). It should be noted that production was expected to increase from the previous year by approximately 5% and the surprise result is a 5.2% less than the previous year.This reduction corresponds to 32,659 MT less than the previous year and about 60,000 MT less than the initial estimates.
The accuracy of this report is quite good so a harvest should be expected around the values eported and there is consensus on the seriousness of the report, which can be seen in the following table.
The news of this lower production has already affected the prices of the California nut for this new season, increasing around 10 cents per kilo for walnut in shell and between 20 - 25 cents unshelled. Obviously there is no final adjustment to the price and will also depend on production in Eastern Europe, China and Turkey, but some effects have already been seen.
WALNUT PRODUCTION FORECAST DOWN
The 2017 California walnut production is forecast at 650,000 tons, down 5 percent from 2016's record production of 686,000 tons. This forecast is based on the 2017 Walnut Objective Measurement (O.M.) Survey, which was officially conducted August 1 through August 19, 2017. There were a few samples completed before August 1 for training and scheduling purposes.
The 2017 walnut season began with adequate chilling hours and record amounts of rain during the winter and spring months. There were reports of orchards being saturated for several weeks which resulted in a compromised root system. A higher than average insect problem was also reported. During the excessive heat waves over the summer, growers applied sunburn preventative materials. Harvest is expected to begin during the middle of September.
The 2017 Walnut O.M. Survey utilized a total of 737 blocks with two sample trees per block. Survey data indicated a record low average nut set of 1,141 per tree, down 19 percent from 2016’s average of 1,406. Percent of sound kernels in-shell was 98.1 percent Statewide. In-shell weight per nut was 23.4 grams, while the average in-shell suture measurement was 32.7 millimeters. The in-shell cross-width measurement was 33.3 and the average length in-shell was 38.6 millimeters. All of the sizing measurements were above the previous year’s levels.
Estimated nut sets, sizing measurements, average number of trees per acre, and estimated bearing acreage were used in the statistical models.